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The impact of climate change on groundwater resources, South-Central Iran

Name: The impact of climate change on groundwater resources, South-Central Iran
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تعداد164 صفحه در فایل word

Ph.D. DISSERTATION IN

The impact of climate change on groundwater resources, South-Central Iran

ABSTRACT

Key words: climate change, South-Central Iran, transient downscaling, water crisis

The study area is located in South-Central Iran. The daily precipitation and temperature generated by the Canadian Global Coupled Model are transiently downscaled, from 2015 to 2095, at 15 stations using LARS-WG under scenarios B1, A1B and A2. The study area will warm 2.3 ^°C, 3.1 ^°C and 3.5 ^°C and mean annual precipitation will decrease by 13%, 24% and 26% under scenarios B1, A1B and A2, respectively. The precipitation reduction varies among different stations due to differing precipitation sources and depths. The duration of dry periods will increase and precipitation depths of all wet, normal and dry periods will decrease under the three scenarios, but the reduction is higher in dry and normal periods.

The annual water balance of the overexploited Jahrum Aquifer was calculated for present period (1998-2010) and for several management alternatives under the three scenarios. The best alternatives to recover both overexploited water and minimum hydraulic head under the three scenarios, is the reduction of cultivated area and water stress during the dry periods.

The Konarsiah, Jahani and Khurab salt diapirs are currently deteriorating the water quality of the Firuzabad River and the adjacent alluvium and karstic aquifers. The average annual halite mass entering the Firuzabad River will decrease, but the average annual salinity rate of this river will increase under the three scenarios. The water of the Konarsiah Spring is a mixture of fresh karst water and brine from the adjacent salt diapir. In spite of discharge reduction of this spring under the climate changes, there is no significant enhancement in salinity rate of the Konarsiah Spring under the three scenarios. The increase of salinity in water resources by halite rocks due to climate change must be considered in long term water resources management.

دسته: زبان خارجه, زبان خارجه برچسب: Key words: climate change, South-Central Iran, transient downscaling, water crisis

توضیحات

Table of Contents

Content Page

Chapter 1: Literature review… 1

1.1. Introduction. 2

1.2. Climate. 2

1.3. Southern Oscillation (SO) and Global Climate. 6

1.4. Climate change: observations and causes. 9

1.5. IPCC’s Scenarios. 12

1.6. Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) 14

1.7. Downscaling. 19

1.7.1. Dynamical downscaling. 20

1.7.2. Statistical downscaling. 20

1.8. LARS Weather Generator. 23

1.9. Previous studies in South-Central Iran. 25

Chapter 2: Study area and climate.. 30

2.1. Study area. 31

2.2. Climate. 33

2.3. Geology. 34

2.3.1. Structural setting. 34

2.3.2. Stratigraphy. 34

Chapter 3: Methodology.. 42

3.1. Climate change study. 43

3.1.1. Selected meteorological stations. 43

3.1.2. Selected scenarios. 44

3.1.3. Selected GCM… 45

3.1.4. Downscaling. 46

3.2. Jahrom Aquifer water balance under climate change. 49

3.3. Firuzabad River water quality under climate change. 51

Chapter 4: Results and discussion.. 54

4.1. Climate change in South-Central Iran. 55

4.2. Jahrom Aquifer water balance under climate change. 105

4.2.1. Geology and Hydrogeology. 105

4.2.2. Climate change in Jahrum Aquifer. 107

4.3. Firuzabad River and Konarsiah Spring under climate change. 120

4.3.1. Hydrogeology of the study area. 121

4.3.2. Firuzabad River discharge. 125

4.3.3. Water Quality of the Firuzabad River. 127

4.3.4. Konarsiah salt diaper. 129

4.3.5. Konarsiah Spring. 131

Chapter 5: Conclusion.. 135

5.1. Climate change in South-Central Iran. 136

5.2. Jahrum Aquifer under climate change. 137

5.3. Firuzabad River and Konarsiah Spring under climate change. 138

5.4. Recommendations. 139

References. 140

title page and abstract in persian

List of Figures

Figure Page

Fig. 1.1. Schematic illustration of the components of the coupled atmosphere-ocean ice-land climatic system. (IPCC, 1990). 3

Fig. 1.2. Correlation (×10) of annual mean sea level pressures with the pressure at Darwin. Correlations exceed 0.4 in the shaded regions and are less than -0.4 in the regions with dashed lines. 7

Fig. 1.3. Sea level pressure fluctuations between 1937 and 1983 at Tahiti (solid line) and Darwin (dotted line) in units of standard deviations for the respective stations. 7

Fig. 1.4. Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature; (b) global average sea level and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All differences are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal averaged values while circles show yearly values (IPCC, 2007) 11

Fig. 1.5. (a) Global annual emissions of anthropogenic GHGs from 1970 to 2004 (b) Share of different anthropogenic GHGs in total emissions in 2004 in terms of CO₂-eq. (c) Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO₂-eq. (Forestry includes deforestation) (IPCC, 2007). 12

Fig 1.6. The model land-sea mask for a typical climate model (IPCC, processes and modeling, 1990) 15

Fig 1.7. A schematic illustrating the general approach to downscaling. 19

Fig. 1.8. The projected anomaly precipitation compared to the 1980-2002 across Iran using CGCM3.1 under scenarios B1, A1B and A2 (Abbaspour et al. 2009) 28

Fig. 1.9. The projected anomaly precipitation (mm/day) for period of 2070-2099 compared to the 1950-2000 under scenario A1B using CMIP3 ensemble runs (Mariotti et al. 2008) 29

Fig. 1.10. The projected anomaly precipitation (mm/day) for period of 2075-2099 compared to the 1979-2007 under scenario A1B using RCM with 20 km resolution (Jin et al. 2010) 29

Fig. 2.1. The main air masses of the study area (a) and location of studied stations on topography map (b) 31

Fig. 2.2. Structural zones of Iran (Stocklin, 1968) 35

Fig. 3.1. The spatial distribution of selected fifteen stations on the topography map. 43

Fig. 3.2. the global warming under scenarios B1, A1B and A2. The base line period is 1968-1990 (IPCC, AR4, 2007). 45

Fig. 3.3. The general flow direction in Jahrum Aquifer, the flow direction of karstic aquifers is schematic (after Jamshidi 2012). 50

Fig. 3.4. Salt diapirs and location of the Firuzabad River within the study area. 52

Fig. 4.1. The mean annual temperature distribution map for the period of 1998-2010 (a); and the mean annual precipitation distribution map for the period of 1968-2010 (b) 55

Fig. 4.2. The downscaled average annual temperature under scenario B1. 56

Fig. 4.3. The downscaled average annual temperature under scenario A1B.. 57

Fig. 4.4. The downscaled average annual temperature under scenario A2. 58

Fig. 4.5. The downscaled annual precipitation under scenario B1. 60

Fig. 4.6. The downscaled annual precipitation under scenario A1B.. 65

Fig. 4.7. The downscaled annual precipitation under scenario A2. 70

Fig.4.8. The percentage of precipitation change between the period of 2015-2095 and the period of 1968-2000 under scenarios B1, A1B and A2. 76

Fig. 4.9. The sources of precipitation in the study area. 80

Fig. 4.10. The correlation between PD and mean annual precipitation depth in the Eastern and Western Regions under the three scenarios (Cc is the correlation coefficient). 81

Fig. 4.11. The wet, normal and dry periods for the calibration period (1968-2000) 83

Fig. 4.12. The wet, normal and dry periods at Shiraz Station under three scenarios. 88

Fig. 4.13. The geological map of the study area and Jahrum Aquifer (JA) boundary (after Jamshidi 2012) 105

Fig. 4.14. The predicted annual average temperature; predicted annual and mean precipitation (P), and 5-year moving average under scenarios B1, A1B and A2 at Jahrum climatic station. 108

Fig. 4.15. The annual effective recharge in Jahrum Aquifer under scenarios B1, A1B and A2 109

Fig. 4.16. The general flow direction in the Jahrum Aquifer, The flow direction of the karstic aquifers is schematic (after Jamshidi 2012) 110

Fig. 4.17. The relationship between monthly pan evaporation and mean temperature at Jahrum climatic station (a) and predicted annual groundwater evaporation (b) 111

Fig. 4.18. The MHS of Jahrum Aquifer for AL1 under three scenarios. 115

Fig. 4.19. The annual TIWR for AL2 and AL3 under scenarios B1, A1B and A2. 116

Fig. 4.20. The annual MHS of the alternatives with no water stress (AL2, AL4, and AL6) and with water stress (AL3, AL5 and AL7) under the three scenarios. On each curve, A denotes the percentage of the present cultivated area and the rest number is the mean annual groundwater exploitation rate (MCM/year) 118

Fig. 4.21. The geological map of the study area (after Zarei and Raeisi 2010a; Abirifard 2014) 121

Fig. 4.22. The annual precipitation and TDS at two hydrometric stations Dehrud and Dehram for baseline period of 1988-2010. 123

Fig. 4.23. The predicted annual precipitation at Firuzabad Meteorological Station and predicted annual average discharge at Dehram Station under three scenarios. 125

Fig. 4.24. The mean annual precipitation at Firuzabad Meteorological Station (a) and mean annual discharge at Dehram Station (b) for the baseline period of 1988-2010 and the three scenarios 126

Fig. 4.25. The relation of the average annual discharge at Dehram Station with precipitation at Firuzabad Meteorological Station (a) and relations of EC (b), TDS (c) and HC (d) with discharge of Dehram Station for baseline period of 1988-2010. 126

Fig. 4.26. The predicted average annual EC (µs/cm), TDS (mg/l) and HC (mg/l) at Dehram Station under three scenarios. 127

Fig. 4.27. The mean annual EC (a), TDS (b) and HC (c) at Dehram Station for the baseline period of 1988-2010 and the three scenarios. 128

Fig. 4.28. The mean annual DHM for the baseline period of 1988-2010 and three scenarios 129

Fig. 4.29. The mean annual internal halite dissolution of KSD for the baseline period of 1988-2010 and three scenarios. 130

Fig. 4.30. The relationship between the and for a 5-year period of 2006- 2010…………………………………………………………………. ………………………..132

Fig. 4.31. The predicted annual average discharge of the EKSA fresh water

under three scenarios B1, A1B and A2…..……………………………133

Fig. 4.32. The annual average chloride concentration of Konarsiah Spring under the climate change 134

List of Tables

Table Page

Table 1.1. The characteristics of SRES Scenarios with change in temperature and CO₂ concentration in the future (CO₂ is 379 ppm at 2005) (IPCC, 2007) 13

Table 1.3. The list of GCMs with their resolutions and some additional information. 17

Table 1.4. Main advantages and disadvantages of statistical and dynamical downscaling 22

Table 1.5. The previous studies of climate change in the study area. 27

Table 2.1. The characteristics of selected fifteen stations in the study area, M.A. denotes the mean annual data. 32

Table 2.2. The various types of climates based on the De Martonne classification. 33

Table 3.1. The characteristics of selected fifteen stations in the study area, M.A. denotes the mean annual data. 44

Table 3.2. The annual discharge (Q), electrical conductivity (EC), Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) and major ions concentration at hydrometric stations Dehrud and Dehram (Fars Regional Water Authority 2014) 53

Table 4.1. The mean annual temperature variation (⁰C) at all nine synoptic stations for the period of 2015-2095 relative to 1968-2000. 59

Table 4.2. The mean annual precipitation (P) of the calibration (1968-2000) and the future (2015-2095) periods, the precipitation differences (PD) and the percentage of precipitation change (PPC) between these two periods for three SRES scenarios. 75

Table 4.3. The characteristics of literature studies on climate change in the study area (SD denotes the statistical downscaling, DD the dynamical downscaling, and ND no downscaling). The PPC for each GCM is presented inside the parenthesis. 79

Table 4.4. The number of periods (N), the range of duration (R) and the mean duration (M) for the calibration period and scenarios B1, A1B and A2 (w, d and n represents wet, dry and normal periods, respectively and Nt is the total number of periods). 103

Table 4.5. PPC, mean duration, number of periods, and ratio of no. of periods in each scenario to no. of baseline periods (BP) for the wet, dry and normal periods. 104

Table 4.6. The annual water balance of Jahrum Aquifer for a period of 13 years (1998-2010) (after Jamshidi 2012) 107

Table 4.7. The selected criteria for the seven alternatives. 109

Table 4.8. The monthly pan coefficients for Jahrum climatic station. 112

Table 4.9. The present cultivated area and irrigation system of cultivated crops in the Jahrum Plain (after Jamshidi, 2012) 113

Table 4.10. The mean annual groundwater exploitation (GE), final MHS, cultivated area (A) and MHS recovering period for seven alternatives under the three scenarios. 119

Table 4.11. The annual average discharge (Q), electrical conductivity (EC), Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) and major ions concentration at hydrometric stations Dehrud and Dehram (Fars Regional Water Authority 2014) 124

The impact of climate change on groundwater resources, South-Central Iran

تعداد164 صفحه در فایل word

Ph.D. DISSERTATION IN

The impact of climate change on groundwater resources, South-Central Iran

ABSTRACT

Key words: climate change, South-Central Iran, transient downscaling, water crisis

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