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دانلود: تحلیل سینوپتیکی یخبندان های استان کرمانشاه ( 2000-2012)
تعداد 133صفحه در فایل word
اقلیم شناسی-گرایش سینوپتیک
تحلیل سینوپتیکی یخبندان های استان کرمانشاه
( 2000-2012)
کارشناسی ارشد
چکیده
پدیده یخبندان همه ساله خسارت های زیانباری را در بخش های مختلف وارد می سازد؛با توجه به موقعیت جغرافیایی کشور ما ایران و ارتفاع نسبتاً بالای بیشتر مناطق آن از سطح دریا و استیلای جبهه های سرد در فصول پاییز و زمستان به این سرزمین، وقوع سرما و یخبندان همه ساله بیشتر نقاط کشور و در برخی سالها حتی قسمت های جنوبی کشور را نیز در بر می گیرد.
این تحقیق به منظورتحلیل سینوپتیکی و آماری پدیده یخبندان در استان کرمانشاه صورت گرفته است. برای بررسی این پدیده مولفه دما انتخاب گردید و روزهایی به عنوان روز یخبندان تعریف شدند که دمای حداقل زیرصفر درتمام ایستگاه های مورد مطالعه گزارش شده بود. پس از بررسی ایستگاه های مورد نظر 163 روز در دوره آماری 2000 تا 2012 از داده های حداقل دما استخراج گردید.از تحلیل مولفه های اصلی برای کم کردن حجم داده ها استفاده شد و حالت s این روش توانست حجم داده ها را تقلیل دهد.انجام فرایند خوشه بندی بر روی داده ها نشان داد که داده های حاصل از 5 الگو حاصل شده اند. سپس برای مشخص شدن کامل جزئیات یک روز به عنوان روز شاخص هر الگو با روش چشمی انتخاب گردید و در هر الگو سیستم های به وجود آورندهی یخبندان شناسایی شد. با مطالعه روز های شاخص مشخص شد که رخداد یخبندان ها در استان کرمانشاه قابل دسته بندی به دو نوع هستند.
نوع اول: یخبندانهایی که با گسترش سیستم های پرفشار اطراف ایران مانند پرفشارسیبری و اروپای شرقی و تشکیل هسته سردی بر روی زاگرس وگسترش آن بر روی غرب و شمال غرب ایران به وجود آمدهاند.
نوع دوم: یخبندان هایی که توسط سیستم های مهاجر به وجود آمده اند.
در مجموع نتایج نشان می دهد که :
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عامل های سطح زمین در رخداد یخبندان های استان کرمانشاه عبارتند از: پرفشارحرارتی سیبری، هسته پرفشار حرارتی شرق اروپا، پرفشار مهاجر، سردی نسبی ارتفاعات در زمستان
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پیشروی تراف باد های غربی به سمت شرق همراه با همگرایی بالایی منطقه چرخندگی منفی موجهای کوتاه در شرایط وزش نصفالنهاری قوی در رخداد و شدت یخبندان های استان کرمانشاه موثر است.
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ایجاد سیستمهای مانع در شمال خزر در سطوح بالا، رخداد یخبندان درکرمانشاه را افزایش می دهد.
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