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دانلود محصول:فرضيه بازار کارا در مديريت مالی

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حسابداری و مدیریت مالی

فرضيه بازار کارا در مديريت مالی

چکیده

سیاستمداران قبل از برگزاری هر انتخاباتی با بکارگیری سیاست­هایی تلاش می­کنند شانس موفقیت خود را در انتخابات افزایش دهند  بدین ترتیب منافع سیاسی خود و احزاب خود را تامین نمایند. در این میان عامل رفتار سرمایه­گذاران در بازار سرمایه که بر عوامل روان­شناختی تصمیم­گیری در شرایط عدم اطمینان اثر می­گذارند، در بازارهای مالی دارای اهمیت می­باشد. از این رو این مطالعه به بررسی چرخه سیاسی و تمایلات سرمایه­گذاران بر بازده سهام در شرکت­های بورس اوراق بهادار تهران پرداخت.  برای انجام این تحقیق نمونه­ای به تعداد  100 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، در دوره زمانی 1388 تا 1396 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. متغیر وابسته این تحقیق بازده سهام و متغیرهای مستقل تمایلات سرمایه­گذار و چرخه سیاسی در نظر گرفته شده است و همچنین متغیرهای کنترلی این تحقیق شامل اندازه شرکت­، اهرم مالی، سن شرکت و فرصت­های رشد می­باشد. برای آزمون فرضیه­های پژوهش از مدل­ رگرسیون داده­های تابلویی با اثرات ثابت استفاده شده است. با برآورد مدل­های تحقیق مشخص شد که تمایلات سرمایه­گذار دارای رابطه مستقیم با بازده سهام است

کلید واژه: چرخه سیاسی، تمایلات سرمایه­گذار، بازده سهام، بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

مقدمه

منتقدان مالی مدرن اعتقاد دارند که برخی از استثناهای مشاهده شده در بازارهای مالی، احتمالا نسبت به هر مدلی عقلایی در مورد ریسک و بازده، غیرعادی هستند. در مقابل، برخی طرفداران تئوری مالی مدرن، بر این باورند که در بازار می­تواند استثناهایی وجود داشته باشد، اما مشاهده این استثناها، نه شاهدی بر رفتار غیرعقلایی عوامل اقتصادی است و نه نقضی بر کارآیی بازار، بلکه بیشتر به دلیل جمع­آوری و تحلیل نادرست اطلاعات و یا تعریف نادرست ریسک سیستماتیک است (هان و تانکز 2003). از طرف دیگر آنان معتقدند که چنانچه تعداد زیادی آزمون در مورد یک نظام پیچیده انجام گیرد، بدیهی است که یکسری نتایج غیرعادی و خلاف قاعده به دست آید. در حالی که برخی دیگر از طرفداران تئوری مالی مدرن از جمله ایوجین فاما که خود از بنیانگذاران این تئوری بوده است، نسبت به نظریه­های ارائه شده در این تئوری ابراز تردید نموده­اند. به­هر حال، بررسی­های دقیق علمی توسط دانشکندان مالی همچنان ادامه دارد و هر روز این ایده که قیمت­ها در بازار بیشتر تحت تاثیر عوامل روانی تعیین می­شوند، قوت بیشتری می­گیرد و بنابراین مطالعه روان­شناسی و هیجانات بازار اهمیت بیشتری پیدا کرده است. دیدگاه سنتی بازده سهام اعتقاد دارد که تغییرات قیمت سهام به تغییرات سیستماتیک در ارزش­های بنیادی شرکت مربوط است. ولی تحقیقات اخیر نشان می­دهد تمایلات احساسی سرمایه­گذار نقش مهمی در تعیین قیمت­ها و تبیین بازده­های سری زمانی، بخصوص برای سهام­هایی که از ارزیابی ذهنی بالاتری برخوردارند و محدودیت زیادی در آربیتراژ دارند بازی می­کند (حیدرپور و همکاران، 1391). شواهد حکایت از آن دارد که سرمایه­گذاران برای تعیین ارزش سهام از روش­های کمی استفاده نمی­کنند. قضاوت­ها مبتنی بر تصورات ذهنی و اطلاعات غیرعلمی و شرایط روانی و احساسی در بورس است. متغیرهای احساسی که براساس محدودیت­های شناختی شکل می­گیرند، شرایط روانی فعالان بازار بورس را مورد بررسی قرار می­دهند. مالی رفتاری یکی از مطالعاتی که در این زمینه به سرعت گسترش یافته است و به بررسی فرآیند تصمیم­گیری سرمایه­گذاران و عکس­العمل آنها نسبت به شرایط مختلف بازارهای مالی می­پردازد و تاکید آن بیشتر به تاثیر احساسات، شخصیت، فرهنگ و قضاوت­های سرمایه­گذاران بر تصمیم­گیری سرمایه­گذاری می­باشد (حیدرپور و همکاران، 1391).

از طرف دیگر ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﮐﻼن اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ و اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﻗﺮار دارﻧﺪ. در ادبیات نظری اقتصاد سیاسی، وجود دوره‌های انتخاباتی می‌تواند منجر به ادوار سیاسی در اقتصاد شود. در واقع سیاستمداران تلاش می‌کنند که در مقطع انتخابات شکوفایی اقتصادی را با اجرای سیاست‌های انبساطی به وجود بیاورند. تا نظر مردم را نسبت به انتخاب مجدد دولتی که الان سر کار است جلب کنند. در عمل زمانی دولت فعلی می‌تواند موفق محسوب و در انتخابات برنده باشد باشد که این باور عمومی را در میان مردم ایجاد کند که شرایط اقتصادی خوب است شرایط خوب اقتصادی ضامن موفقیت سیاست‌های اقتصادی دولت است.

جرﯾﺎن­ﻫﺎ و ﺗﺤﻮﻻت ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ می­ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ اﻓﺮاد ﺑﺮاي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري در ﺑﻮرس اوراق بهادار باشد. بازارﻫﺎی مالی ﺑﻪ اخبار ﺟﺪﯾﺪ در ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻤﺎت ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ واﮐﻨﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ­دﻫﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻤﮑﻦ اﺳﺖ  ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ و ﭘﻮﻟﯽ ﮐﺸﻮر را ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﻗﺮار دﻫﻨﺪ. ﻫﻤﯿﻦ ﻃﻮر ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاران ﺑﻪ دﻗﺖ روﯾﺪادﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ را دﻧﺒﺎل ﻣﯽ­ﮐﻨﻨﺪ و ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﻮرد اﻧﺘﻈﺎرﺷﺎن از اﯾﻦ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﺎت در ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﻫﺎي ﺧﻮد ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ.

نظر به اینکه ﺷـﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﯿﻤـﺖ ﺳـﻬﺎم در اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﻫﺎي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬـﺎدار ﯾﮑـﯽ از ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ اﺑﺰارﻫﺎ ﺑﺮاي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاران در ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ و ﭘـﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨـﯽ اﺳـﺖ از اﯾـﻦ رو ﺷـﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮآن حائز اهمیت می­باشد.

در این فصل ابتدا به تبیین مسئله اصلی پرداخته شده و سپس اهمیت و ضرورت موضوع تحقیق، تشریح می­گردد، در ادامه با توجه به موضوع تحقیق که رابطه بین چرخه­های سیاسی و تمایلات سرمایه­گذار بر بازده سهام شرکت­های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادر تهران می­باشد، مسئله اصلی تحقیق ارائه می­گردد. اهداف و فرضیه­های از جمله مطالب دیگر فصل اول است و در ادامه، تعریف واژه­های تحقیق مطرح خواهد شد.

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