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دانلود پروژه:بررسی اثرات نقدینگی بر نوسان قیمت در بازار مسکن (مطالعه بین کشوری)
تعداد 173صفحه در فایل word
کارشناسي ارشد در رشته اقتصاد
گرايش توسعه اقتصادی و برنامهریزی
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بررسی اثرات نقدینگی بر نوسان قیمت در بازار مسکن
چکیدهاهمیت روزافزون بازار داراییها، بررسی مداوم این بازار را ضروری میسازد. یکی از اجزای مهم سیستم مالی، بازار مسکن است. در سالهای اخیر بازار مسکن همواره با نوسانات سوداگرانه مواجه بوده است. یکی از عوامل اصلی رشد جهشی قیمت مسکن، تقاضای دارایی مسکن است که خود ریشه در مشکلات ساختاری اقتصاد کلان از جمله رشد شتابان نقدینگی و عدم ظرفیتپذیری سایر بخش‌های اقتصادی برای جذب این نقدینگی دارد. حال سؤالی که مطرح میشود این است که آیا نقدینگی جهانی به قیمتهای مسکن سرازیر میشود؟ در این مطالعه اثر نقدینگی بر نوسان قیمت بازار مسکن در ایران و بیست کشور OECD که نوسانات قیمت مسکن در دهههای اخیر در آنها بیشتر از سایر کشورها به چشم میخورد بررسی شده است. روش تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات در این پژوهش، روش کمی و در قالب مدلهای اقتصادسنجی Panel Data بوده و با دادههای فصلی ( 2009-1980) و با استفاده از نرمافزار Eviews انجام شده است. ابتدا یک مدل پایه برای تمامی کشورهای منتخب برآورد شده و سپس کشورها به دو گروه کشورهای دارای درآمد نفتی و کشورهای فاقد درآمد نفتی تقسیم شده و نتایج حاصل از رگرسیون با هم مقایسه شده‌اند و در نهایت به بررسی اثرات ناشی از بحران نقدینگی 2008 بر قیمت مسکن کشورهای نفتخیز پرداخته شده است. نتایج تخمینها حاکی از آن است که در کل مدلهای مورد مطالعه نقدینگی اثر مثبت و به شدت معنیداری بر قیمت مسکن دارد و سهم قابل توجهی از نوسانات قیمت مسکن توسط نقدینگی موجود در این بخش توضیح داده میشود. در مدل کشورهای دارای درآمد نفتی، کشش و اثر نهایی نقدینگی بزرگتر از مدل پایه و مدل کشورهای فاقد درآمد نفتی است، در نتیجه در کشورهای نفتخیز نقدینگی اثر بزرگتری بر قیمت مسکن دارد. همچنین در بحران مالی 2008، درآمدهای نفتی به عنوان کانال نقدینگی اثر منفی بر قیمت مسکن در کشورهای نفتخیز منتخب داشتهاند. |
واژههای کلیدی: شاخص قیمت مسکن، نقدینگی، بحران مالی، درآمدهای نفتی، Panel Data |
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