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دانلود محصول:رابطه بین مدیریت سرمایه در گردش و خطای پیش بینی سود مدیریت در شرکت-های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

تعداد 159 صفحه فایل word

چکیده

سود یکی از اقلام مهم و اصلی صورتهای مالی است که توجه استفاده کنندگان صورتهای مالی را به خود جلب می کند. مدیریت سرمایه در گردش یکی از حوزه های مهم در مدیریت مالی و مدیریت سازمانها به حساب می آید، زیرا به طور مستقیم نقدینگی و سودآوری شرکتها را تحت تاثیر قرار می دهد. این پژوهش، با هدف بررسی رابطه بین مدیریت سرمایه گردش و خطای پیش بینی سود مدیریت در شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران انجام گرفت. بدین منظور، مولفههای مدیریت سرمایه در گردش، شامل (دوره تبدیل وجه نقد، میانگین دوره وصول مطالبات، دوره پرداخت حسابهای پرداختنی، دوره گردش موجودیها) به عنوان متغیر مستقل و خطای پیش بینی سود مدیریت به عنوان متغیر وابسته در نظر گرفته شده است.

روش آماری استفاده شده جهت تجزیه و تحلیل دادهها، رگرسیون چندگانه و نمونه انتخابی شامل 110 شرکت، طی دوره زمانی (1392-1388) میباشد.

نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش نشان داد که در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد ارتباط مثبت معناداری بین متغیرهای میانگین دوره وصول مطالبات با خطای پیش بینی سود وجود دارد. همچنین ارتباط معناداری بین متغیرهای دوره گردش موجودی ها، دوره پرداخت حساب پرداختنی و دوره تبدیل وجه نقد مشاهده نگردید.

کلید واژه: مدیریت سرمایه در گردش، دوره تبدیل وجه نقد، میانگین دوره وصول مطالبات، دوره پرداخت حسابهای پرداختنی، دوره گردش موجودیها، خطای پیش بینی سود مدیریت

دسته: حسابداری, علوم انسانی برچسب: خطای پیش بینی سود مدیریت, دوره پرداخت حسابهای پرداختنی, دوره تبدیل وجه نقد, دوره گردش موجودیها, مدیریت سرمایه در گردش, میانگین دوره وصول مطالبات

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فهرست مطالب

عنوان

صفحه

فصل اول: کلیات تحقیق

1-1- مقدمه………………………………………………………………………………………………….

1-2- بیان مسئله تحقیق………………………………………………………………………………….

1-3- اهداف و سوالات تحقیق……………………………………………………………………….

1-4- اهمیت و ضرورت موضوع تحقیق…………………………………………………………..

1-5 – قلمرو تحقیق………………………………………………………………………………………..

1-5-1- قلمرو مکانی……………………………………………………………………….

1-5-2- قلمرو زمانی………………………………………………………………………..

1-5-3- قلمرو موضوعی…………………………………………………………………..

1-6- روش تحقیق………………………………………………………………………………………..

1-6-1- نوع و چگونگی جمع آوری داده ها……………………………………….

1-6-2- روش تحلیل داده ها……………………………………………………………..

1-7- تعاریف واژه‌ها و اصطلاحات تخصصی…………………………………………………..

1-8- ساختار تحقیق……………………………………………………………………………….

1-8- خلاصه فصل………………………………………………………………………………………..

فصل دوم: ادبیات نظری و پیشینه تحقیق

بخش اول: مبانی نظری مدیریت سرمایه در گردش و عملکرد

2-1- مقدمه………………………………………………………………………………………………….

2-2- ماهیت سرمایه در گردش……………………………………………………………………….

2-3- عوامل موثر در تعیین میزان سرمایه در گردش…………………………………………..

2-4- مدیریت سرمایه در گردش…………………………………………………………………….

2-5- اهمیت مدیریت سرمایه در گردش……………………………………………………………

2-6- سیستم جامع مدیریت سرمایه در گردش…………………………………………………..

2-7- استراتژیهای مدیریت سرمایه در گردش…………………………………………………

2-7-1- استراتژی (سیاست) محافظه کارانه……………………………………………

2-7-2- استراتژی (سیاست) جسورانه…………………………………………………..

2-7-3- استراژی (سیاست) میانه رو…………………………………………………….

2-8- عوامل موثر بر مدیریت سرمایه درگردش…………………………………………………..

2-8-1- ظرفیت برای ایجاد منابع داخلی……………………………………………….

2-8-2- اهرم……………………………………………………………………………………..

2-8-3- فرصت رشد………………………………………………………………………….

2-8-4- اندازه شرکت…………………………………………………………………………

2-8-5- عمر شرکت…………………………………………………………………………..

2-8-6- دارایی های ثابت مشهود…………………………………………………………

2-8-7- بازده…………………………………………………………………………………….

2-8-8- صنعت………………………………………………………………………………….

2-9- اجزاء مدیریت سرمایه در گردش……………………………………………………………..

2-9-1- دوره پرداخت………………………………………………………………………..

2-9-2- دوره وصول مطالبات……………………………………………………………..

2-9-3- دوره گردش موجودی ها………………………………………………………..

2-9-4- چرخه تبدیل وجه نقد…………………………………………………………….

2-10- رابطه بین مدیریت سرمایه درگردش و ارزش شرکت……………………………….

2-10-1- حجم و ترکیب سرمایه درگردش……………………………………………

2-10-2- هزینه سرمایه……………………………………………………………………….

2-10-3- سررسید تعهدات جاری………………………………………………………..

2-10-4- تاثیر بر حقوق صاحبان سهام…………………………………………………

2-11- پیش بینی سود…………………………………………………………………………………….

2-12- پیش بینی سود هر سهم و اهمیت آن………………………………………………………

2-13- پیش بینی سود به وسیله مدیران……………………………………………………………..

2-14- پیش‌ بینی سود مدیریت………………………………………………………………………..

2-15- ویژگی های پیش بینی سود…………………………………………………………………..

2-16- اهمیت سود سهام پیش ‌بینی شده…………………………………………………………..

2-17- استفاده کنندگان پیش بینی سود……………………………………………………………..

2-18- اهداف پیش بینی های سود……………………………………………………………………

2-19- نظرات طرفداران و مخالفین پیش بینی سود……………………………………………..

2-20- برخی از عوامل موثر بر دقت پیش بینی سود شرکت ها…………………………….

2-20-1- اندازه شرکت……………………………………………………………………….

2-20-2- دوره پیش بینی…………………………………………………………………….

2-20-3- عمر شرکت…………………………………………………………………………

2-20-4- اهرم مالی……………………………………………………………………………

2-20-5- گروه صنعت……………………………………………………………………….

2-20-6- گزارش حسابرسی……………………………………………………………….

2-20-7- دفعات تجدید نظر……………………………………………………………….

2-20-8- حضور در تابلوی اصلی یا فرعی……………………………………………

2-21- خطای پیش‌ بینی سود…………………………………………………………………………..

بخش دوم: تاریخچه مطالعات پیشین در رابطه با موضوع تحقیق

2-22- تحقیقات داخلی…………………………………………………………………………………..

2-23- تحقیقات خارجی…………………………………………………………………………………

2-24- خلاصه فصل……………………………………………………………………………………….

فصل سوم: روش تحقیق

3-1- مقدمه…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

3-2- نوع پژوهش………………………………………………………………………………………….

3-3- طرح مساله تحقیق………………………………………………………………………………….

3-4- فرضیات تحقیق……………………………………………………………………………………..

3-5- قلمرو مکانی و زمانی……………………………………………………………………………..

3-6- جامعه مورد نظر تحقیق…………………………………………………………………………..

3-7- نمونه آماری………………………………………………………………………………………….

3-8- روش نمونه گیری و دلایل انتخاب آن………………………………………………………

3-9- ابزار جمع آوری داده های مورد نیاز تحقیق……………………………………………….

3-10- روایایی و اعتبار ابزار جمع آوری داده ها………………………………………………..

3-11- مدل ها و متغیر های پژوهش و نحوه آزمون فرضیه ها……………………………..

3-12- متغیر های تحقیق و نحوه اندازه گیری آن ها……………………………………………

3-13- روش های آماری مورد استفاده در پژوهش……………………………………………..

3-14- روش های تخمین با استفاده از داده های ترکیبی……………………………………..

3-14-1- آمار توصیفی……………………………………………………………………….

3-14-1-1- آزمون ایستایی (پایایی) متغیر های پژوهش……………..

3-14-2- آمار استنباطی………………………………………………………………………

3-14-2-1- روش رگرسیون چند متغیره…………………………………..

3-14-2-2- آزمون t استیودنت………………………………………………..

3-14-2-3- آزمون F استیت…………………………………………………..

3-14-2-4- آزمون ناهمسانی………………………………………………….

3-14-2-5- آزمون عامل تورم واریانس (VIF)………………………….

3-15- روش تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها………………………………………………………………..

3-15-1- روش های مختلف داده های تابلویی………………………………………

3-15-2- آزمون های تشخیص……………………………………………………………

3-15-2-1- آزمون F لیمر (چاو)…………………………………………….

3-15-2-2- آزمون هاسمن……………………………………………………..

3-15-2-3- ضریب تعیین و ضریب تعیین تعدیل شده……………….

3-15-2-4- آزمون دوربین – واتسون (D-W)………………………….

3-16- خلاصه فصل……………………………………………………………………………………….

فصل چهارم: تجزیه و تحلیل یافته های تحقیق

4-1- مقدمه…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

4-2- نتایج آمار توصیفی…………………………………………………………………………………

4-3– تحلیل ماهیت و ویژگیهای متغیرهای تحقیق…………………………………………….

4-3-1- بررسی پایایی داده‌ها…………………………………………………………….

4-3-2- بررسی مدل اول تحقیق…………………………………………………………..

4-3-2-1- آزمون همسانی واریانس ها……………………………………..

4-3-2-2- بررسی خود همبستگی……………………………………………

4-3-2-3- آزمون معني دار بودن روش اثرات ثابت……………………

4-3-2-4- آزمون فرضيات مدل اول تحقيق………………………………

4-3-2-5- آزمون رگرسیون مربوط به فرضیات تحقیق……………….

4-3-2-5-1- آزمون رگرسیون مربوط به فرضیه اول تحقیق………………………………………………………………………..

4-3-2-5-2- آزمون رگرسیون مربوط به فرضیه دوم تحقیق………………………………………………………………………..

4-3-2-5-3- آزمون رگرسیون مربوط به فرضیه سوم تحقیق………………………………………………………………………..

4-3-2-5-4- متغیرهای کنترلی تحقیق………………………….

4-3-3- بررسی مدل دوم تحقیق………………………………………………………….

4-3-3-1- آزمون همسانی واریانس ها……………………………………..

4-3-3-2- بررسی خود همبستگی……………………………………………

4-3-3-3- آزمون معني دار بودن روش اثرات ثابت……………………

4-3-3-4- آزمون فرضيات مدل دوم تحقيق………………………………

4-3-3-5- آزمون رگرسیون مربوط به فرضیات تحقیق……………….

4-3-3-5-1- آزمون رگرسیون مربوط به فرضیه چهارم تحقیق………………………………………………………………………..

4-3-3-5-2- متغیرهای کنترلی تحقیق………………………….

4-4- خلاصه فصل…………………………………………………………………………………………

فصل پنجم: نتیجه گیری و پیشنهادات

5-1- مقدمه…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

5-2- یافته های تحقیق……………………………………………………………………………………

5-2-1- نتایج آزمون فرضیه اول…………………………………………………………..

5-2-2- نتایج آزمون فرضیه دوم………………………………………………………….

5-2-3- نتایج آزمون فرضیه سوم………………………………………………………….

5-2-4- نتایج آزمون فرضیه چهارم………………………………………………………

5-3- نتیجه گیری تحقیق…………………………………………………………………………………

5-4- محدودیت های تحقیق……………………………………………………………………………

5-5- پیشنهادات تحقیق…………………………………………………………………………………..

5-5-1- پیشنهادات کاربردی………………………………………………………………..

5-5-2- پیشنهادات برای تحقیقات آتی…………………………………………………

منابع و مآخذ…………………………………………………………………………………..

پیوست ها

پیوست شماره (1): اسامی شرکت های موجود در نمونه تحقیق…………………………….

پیوست شماره (2): نتایج آمار توصیفی متغیر های تحقیق……………………………………..

پیوست شماره (3): آزمون پایایی – AFE…………………………………………………………..

پیوست شماره (4): آزمون پایایی – ACP…………………………………………………………..

پیوست شماره (5): آزمون پایایی – ITID…………………………………………………………..

پیوست شماره (6): آزمون پایایی – APP……………………………………………………………

پیوست شماره (7): آزمون پایایی – CCC…………………………………………………………..

پیوست شماره (8): آزمون پایایی – SIZE………………………………………………………….

پیوست شماره (9): آزمون پایایی – LEV…………………………………………………………..

پیوست شماره (10): آزمون پایایی – ROA………………………………………………………..

پیوست شماره (11): آزمون پایایی – AGE………………………………………………………..

پیوست شماره (12): آزمون (ARCH) مدل اول تحقیق………………………………………..

پیوست شماره (13): برآورد بهترین مدل، آزمون چاو. متغیر وابسته (AFE) و متغیر مستقل (ACP)………………………………………………………………………………………………..

پیوست شماره (14): برآورد بهترین مدل، آزمون هاسمن. متغیر وابسته (AFE) و متغیر مستقل (ACP)……………………………………………………………………………………….

پیوست شماره (15): نتایج آزمون رگرسیون فرضیه‌ها. متغیر وابسته (AFE) و متغیر مستقل (ACP)………………………………………………………………………………………………..

پیوست شماره (16): آزمون (ARCH) مدل دوم تحقیق……………………………………….

پیوست شماره (17): برآورد بهترین مدل، آزمون چاو. متغیر وابسته (AFE) و متغیر مستقل (CCC)……………………………………………………………………………………………….

پیوست شماره (18): نتایج آزمون رگرسیون فرضیه‌ها. متغیر وابسته (AFE) و متغیر مستقل (CCC)……………………………………………………………………………………………….

پیوست شماره (19): نتایج آزمون رگرسیون فرضیه‌ها. متغیر وابسته (AFE) و متغیر مستقل (CCC)……………………………………………………………………………………………….

چکیده انگلیسی…………………………………………………………………………………………..

فهرست نمودار و جداول

جدول 2-1- سیاست های مختلف سرمایه در گردش………………………………………….

جدول 2-2- خلاصه نتایج تحقیقات داخل کشور……………………………………………….

جدول 2-3- خلاصه نتایج تحقیقات خارج کشور……………………………………………….

جدول 3-1- روند انتخاب نمونه آماری تحقیق…………………………………………………..

جدول 4-1- نتایج آماره های توصیفی مورد استفاده در این تحقیق………………………..

جدول 4-2- پایایی داده ها………………………………………………………………………………

جدول 4-3- نتایج آزمون آماره F……………………………………………………………………..

جدول 4-4- نتایج آزمون آماره F……………………………………………………………………..

جدول 4-5- نتایج آزمون هاسمن در شرکت ها………………………………………………….

جدول 4-6- نتایج آزمون رگرسیون ترکیبی مدل اول تحقیق…………………………………

جدول 4-7- نتایج آزمون آماره F……………………………………………………………………..

جدول 4-8- نتایج آزمون آماره F……………………………………………………………………..

جدول 4-9- نتایج آزمون هاسمن در شرکت ها………………………………………………….

جدول 4-10- نتایج آزمون رگرسیون ترکیبی مدل دوم تحقیق………………………………

جدول 5-1- خلاصه نتایج حاصل از آزمون فرضیه های تحقیق……………………………

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